Round and round she goes, which banks are solvent? Nobody knows.

This is the next shoe to drop and potentially the biggest of all.  Of course the Fed is going to say that 10%-12% unemployment or another 20% or so shaved off home values is "unlikely" but  if that's what they really thought then there'd be no need to measure potential bank solvency against that kind of crazy talk.  

As for what the market expects you need only look at stock prices for Citi and BoA that are $30 to $40 off their 12 month highs.  Everybody thinks these guys are toast.